Before each CPI print we put a forecast on the record and grade it after, misses included. Our headline call is the Nowflation CPI Forecast, an error-weighted blend of our in-house model, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus, each weighted by its graded track record. The in-house model's vintage-true backtest covers 88 prints (2019-01 to 2026-07) at 0.13pp mean absolute error vs 0.331pp for a naive baseline; the blend is tighter still. Nowflation's record before June 2026 is an honest vintage-true backtest; live calls since June 2026 · 2 graded — each one pre-registered with a dated receipt before the print. Graded values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time and are never rewritten when a source revises after the release.
Every call is written to a dated receipt before the print: one JSON file per print month at /forecasts/index.json, locked the evening before release, SHA-256 hashed, never rewritten. Latest receipt: 2026-08 (provisional — locks the evening before release, September 1, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET): Nowflation CPI Forecast 3.33%, in-house model 3.29%, Cleveland Fed 3.38%, Kalshi 3.36%.
| Status | Written (ET) | Nowflation Forecast | Actual | Error | Receipt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | provisional | September 1, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET | 3.33% | pending | — | JSON |
| 2026-07 | locked | September 1, 2026 at 5:23 PM ET | 3.42% | 3.4% | +0.021pp | JSON |
| 2026-06 | locked | July 7, 2026 11:18 AM ET | 3.94% | 3.5% | +0.435pp | JSON |
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE (pp) | Live bias (pp) | Closest-call % (live) | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE (pp) | Combined prints | Combined MAE (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Street Consensus | 43 | 0.088 | +0.023 | 44% | — | — | 43 | 0.088 |
| Cleveland Fed | 43 | 0.106 | +0.038 | 26% | — | — | 43 | 0.106 |
| Kalshi Market | 2 | 0.181 | +0.128 | 0% | — | — | 2 | 0.181 |
| Nowflation Forecast | 2 | 0.208 | +0.208 | 0% | — | — | 2 | 0.208 |
| Nowflation Model | 2 | 0.292 | +0.292 | 0% | 39 | 0.085 | 41 | 0.095 |
Live = scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026), reported in its own column; the combined figure mixes both and is labeled as such.
| Actual | Street Consensus | Cleveland Fed | Kalshi Market | Nowflation Forecast | Nowflation Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.42% | 3.347% | 3.421% | 3.46% |
| 2026-06 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.92% | 3.809% | 3.895% | 4.025% |
| 2026-05 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.18% | — | — | 4.247% |
| 2026-04 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.565% | — | — | 3.571% |
| 2026-03 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.252% | — | — | 3.368% |
| 2026-02 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.406% | — | — | 2.435% |
| 2026-01 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.364% | — | — | 2.403% |
| 2025-12 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.573% | — | — | 2.571% |
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