A classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 — 16-lb turkey, potatoes, sweet potatoes, rolls, butter, milk, eggs, flour, sugar and coffee — costs $74.69 at 2026-07 shelf prices ($7.47 a head), +1.8% vs a year ago. Last Thanksgiving (2025-11) the same basket cost $69.87; in November 2019 it was $47.01. Projection for 2026-11: $71.63 (graded when the November print lands in mid-December).
| Item | Quantity | Price | Line | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey, whole frozen | 16 lb | $2.42/lb | $38.79 | +8.4% |
| Potatoes, white | 5 lb | $0.94/lb | $4.71 | -3.7% |
| Sweet potatoes * | 3 lb | $0.94/lb | $2.83 | -3.7% |
| Dinner rolls (12) * | 1 lb | $1.82/lb | $1.82 | -1.7% |
| Butter, stick | 1 lb | $3.92/lb | $3.92 | -18.2% |
| Milk, whole | 1 gal | $4.31/gal | $4.31 | +3.6% |
| Eggs, grade A large | 1 doz | $2.19/doz | $2.19 | -39.2% |
| Flour, all-purpose | 5 lb | $0.54/lb | $2.72 | -2.5% |
| Sugar, white | 4 lb | $1.02/lb | $4.1 | -2.1% |
| Coffee, ground roast | 1 lb | $9.32/lb | $9.32 | +10.7% |
Biggest movers vs a year ago: turkey, whole frozen +8.4% (+$3), eggs, grade a large -39.2% ($-1.41), coffee, ground roast +10.7% (+$0.9), butter, stick -18.2% ($-0.87). Turkey: $2.42/lb; farm-gate turkeys $1.25/lb (+23.4% YoY, USDA NASS). BLS average price for whole frozen turkey through Feb 2020, then the same-calendar-month 2017–19 level moved by the BLS CPI item index for other uncooked poultry including turkey (NSA), calibrated to the last 12 published months of the average-price series.
Every line = BLS Average Price (US city average, published with each CPI) × quantity. Totals are computed only for months where every line has a price; a missing month (BLS skipped October 2025) falls back to the nearest published month within two. Projection = each item's October price × its average November/October seasonal ratio since 2018 (geometric mean), summed. Updated with each CPI/AP release. Quantities: 16-lb turkey, 5 lb white potatoes, 3 lb sweet potatoes (white-potato proxy), 12 rolls (≈1 lb white bread), 1 lb butter, 1 gal whole milk, 1 dozen eggs, 5 lb flour, 4 lb sugar, 1 lb coffee. Cranberries, stuffing and pie ingredients have no BLS average price and are left out. Context: American Farm Bureau Federation annual survey, classic dinner for 10. Different basket (adds stuffing, cranberries, pie mix and shells, whipping cream, peas, veggie tray) and a different method (volunteer shoppers, November feature prices) — context, not an input. AFBF survey totals: 2024 $58.08, 2025 $55.18. Updated with each CPI/AP release.
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