Question 1

Why does Nowflation differ from official CPI?

Accepted Answer

Nowflation reads 2.89% while official CPI reads 3.4% mainly because of shelter: the BLS reprices each surveyed rental unit only every six months, so official rent blends leases signed up to a year ago, while Nowflation measures what all tenants pay from this month's new leases (Zillow and Apartment List rents averaged over every lease still in force, used as measured — not forecast), a reading that on the record runs about 6 months ahead of the official rent index — plus daily market prices versus a monthly survey.

Question 2

Why not just apply market rents to shelter?

Accepted Answer

Because new leases are the marginal tenant, not the population: only about 6% of leases turn over in a month, so most tenants pay a rent set months or years ago. Applied at level, new-lease rents ran far ahead of the CPI in both directions and never converged to it. Nowflation's all-tenant rent index averages new-lease rents over the trailing 36 months, weighted by the share of leases still in force, and the gauge uses that reading as measured; on the record it runs about 6 months ahead of official rent (correlation 0.976 since 2018) — a lead published as a diagnostic on the lead-test page, not a forecast built into the gauge. Raw new-lease rents are still published on the housing page as where shelter is heading.

Question 3

Is the official CPI wrong?

Accepted Answer

No. The BLS measures what it says it measures. Its shelter method is lagged by design and its collection cycle is monthly. Nowflation measures the same economy with today’s market prices. Both are true; they answer different questions.

Question 4

Why trust an independent inflation index?

Accepted Answer

Verify instead: every source is public and named, the methodology is versioned with a public changelog, historical values are never silently revised, and every CPI forecast is graded publicly after each print next to the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi.

Question 5

What data goes into the Nowflation gauge?

Accepted Answer

21 input series across the 14 CPI components: Zillow and Apartment List new-lease rents feeding an all-tenant rent model, AAA pump prices, Manheim wholesale used-vehicle values, EIA residential electricity and natural gas, Zillow home values with today's mortgage rate for the cost-of-living variant, and the official BLS subindex, held at its last measured print between releases, wherever no better daily market source exists. Behind them sits an open directory of 1,629 public series from 30 sources, every one downloadable. Full list on the methodology page.

Component	Ours YoY	BLS YoY
Shelter: Rent	+0.9%	+2.9%
Shelter: Owned	+3.3%	+3.2%
Motor Fuel	+31.2%	+31.2%
Used Vehicles	+2.1%	-1.9%
New Vehicles	+0.5%	+0.5%
Food at Home	+2.7%	+2.6%
Food Away	+3.4%	+3.4%
Electricity	+4.0%	+4.2%
Utility Gas	+3.0%	+4.3%
Medical Care	+2.0%	+1.7%
Apparel	+3.9%	+3.9%
Recreation	+2.8%	+2.6%
Education & Comm	-0.1%	+0.5%
Everything Else	+2.6%	+2.5%

Why the Nowflation gauge (2.89%) differs from official CPI (3.4%)

Component decomposition (2026-07)