{
  "print_month": "2026-07",
  "status": "locked",
  "immutable": true,
  "source": "scoreboard rows frozen at grading time (INSERT OR IGNORE — never rewritten by later revisions from any source)",
  "release_datetime_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z",
  "release_datetime_et": "2026-08-12 08:30 ET",
  "locked_at_utc": "2026-09-01T21:23:10Z",
  "locked_at_et": "September 1, 2026 at 5:23 PM ET",
  "official_forecast": {
    "label": "Nowflation CPI Forecast",
    "target": "cpi_headline_yoy",
    "method": "fmc_ensemble (inverse-error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up nowcast, Cleveland Fed, and Street — every rated forecaster weighted by its mean absolute error over a common window of graded prints)",
    "value_precise": 3.421,
    "value_reported_1dp": 3.4
  },
  "headline_yoy_all_forecasters": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 3.421,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 3.46,
    "cleveland_fed": 3.42,
    "kalshi_implied": 3.347,
    "street_consensus": 3.4
  },
  "core_yoy": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 2.509,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 2.516,
    "cleveland_fed": 2.52,
    "kalshi_implied": 2.431,
    "street_consensus": 2.5
  },
  "headline_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.096,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.104,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.09,
    "kalshi_implied": 0.086,
    "street_consensus": 0.1
  },
  "core_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.204,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.178,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.21,
    "kalshi_implied": null,
    "street_consensus": 0.2
  },
  "forecast_asof": {
    "cpi_headline_yoy": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-08-11",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-08-11",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-08-11",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-08-12",
      "street_consensus": "2026-08-12"
    },
    "cpi_core_yoy": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-08-11",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-08-11",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-08-11",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-08-12",
      "street_consensus": "2026-08-12"
    },
    "cpi_headline_mom": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-08-11",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-08-11",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-08-11",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-08-12",
      "street_consensus": "2026-08-12"
    },
    "cpi_core_mom": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-08-11",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-08-11",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-08-11",
      "street_consensus": "2026-08-12"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "prior_actual": 3.5,
    "street_consensus": 3.4
  },
  "ensemble_weights_headline": null,
  "graded": {
    "headline_yoy_all_forecasters": {
      "actual": 3.4,
      "signed_error": {
        "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.021,
        "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.06,
        "cleveland_fed": 0.02,
        "kalshi_implied": -0.053,
        "street_consensus": 0
      },
      "closest": "street_consensus"
    },
    "core_yoy": {
      "actual": 2.5,
      "signed_error": {
        "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.009,
        "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.016,
        "cleveland_fed": 0.02,
        "kalshi_implied": -0.069,
        "street_consensus": 0
      },
      "closest": "street_consensus"
    },
    "headline_mom": {
      "actual": 0.1,
      "signed_error": {
        "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": -0.004,
        "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.004,
        "cleveland_fed": -0.01,
        "kalshi_implied": -0.014,
        "street_consensus": 0
      },
      "closest": "street_consensus"
    },
    "core_mom": {
      "actual": 0.2,
      "signed_error": {
        "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.004,
        "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": -0.022,
        "cleveland_fed": 0.01,
        "street_consensus": 0
      },
      "closest": "street_consensus"
    }
  },
  "grading_rule": "Graded against the BLS first-release CPI (headline and core YoY = NSA, MoM = SA, one decimal, exactly as the BLS news release reports them). The standing forecast updates daily as data lands; the value on the tape the evening before release is the graded call (vintage-true), consistent with the backtest methodology. Once graded, the scoreboard row is frozen — later revisions by any source never touch it.",
  "audit_trail": "Full daily as-of history for every forecaster is preserved in the engine database and surfaced on /scoreboard and /cpi-preview. This file is the dated record; sha256 is the SHA-256 of this JSON with the sha256 field removed.",
  "sha256": "e454dbe74fc9042c04343f938c15708f04c848c42869ac932a35ff11d4026e82"
}