Smoothed recession probability

Latest value: 0.76 as of 2026-07-01, +31.0% year over year. 127 monthly observations from 2016-01 to 2026-07. Source: FRED — public data, full history downloadable as JSON on this page. Part of the Nowflation open directory.

DateValue
2026-07-010.76
2026-06-010.56
2026-05-010.54
2026-04-010.46
2026-03-010.54
2026-02-010.52

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